The UK’s motor insurance industry is showing signs of strain, with warnings that financial losses could hit the market as early as next year. While most attention has focused on private car insurance, commercial brokers are growing increasingly concerned that they won’t remain unaffected for long.
New forecasts from professional services firm EY indicate that the personal motor insurance market will narrowly avoid losses in 2025, with a flat net combined ratio (NCR) of 100%. However, the situation is expected to worsen in 2026, with the NCR projected to rise to 107%. This would mean insurers are paying out more in claims and expenses than they earn in premiums.
The forecasted losses are driven by several persistent challenges, including rising claims inflation, ongoing parts shortages, and more complex and costly vehicle repairs. These pressures have already put a squeeze on the private motor sector, and commercial brokers say similar issues are beginning to surface in their segment.
“Commercial motor brokers are aware of the rising costs insurers are facing,” said Helen Garlick, Commercial Account Executive at Brown & Brown. “This has been exacerbated by the shortage of parts and rising costs to repair vehicles, increased timescales in settling claims and the ongoing issues with injury claims costs.”
As repair delays grow and inflationary pressures persist, many in the industry are now questioning whether commercial motor coverage will remain both affordable and widely available in the coming months.
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