In 2026, thousands of Oregonians who purchase health insurance through the state’s Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace may face significantly higher premiums unless Congress steps in to extend the pandemic-era enhanced tax credits. According to a report from the Oregon Health Authority, over 111,000 Oregonians will see their premiums rise $127 to $456 per month depending on their income level if these credits are not renewed. Nearly 35,000 Oregonians will lose all financial assistance with their premiums and out-of-pocket costs.
The Impact of the Expiration of Enhanced Tax Credits
The enhanced tax credits were introduced as part of the American Rescue Plan in 2021, a COVID-19 stimulus package designed to make health insurance more affordable for millions of Americans. These credits expanded access to the ACA marketplace by increasing the income threshold for eligibility and capping premiums at 8.5% of a household’s income for those above the previous threshold of 400% of the federal poverty level.
However, congressional Republicans did not include an extension of these tax credits in their summer tax and spending bill. Without Congressional action to extend them by the end of this year, these tax credits will expire, resulting in substantial increases in premiums for many policyholders.
The Financial Impact for Oregonians
For the average Oregonian, the expiration of these credits will mean $127 to $456 more per month in health insurance premiums in 2026. This change will affect people in different income brackets in varying ways:
For households earning more than 400% of the federal poverty level (about $62,000 for a single-person household, $84,000 for a two-person household, and $128,000 for a four-person household), the enhanced credits will no longer apply, leaving these individuals and families with significantly higher premiums.
For those below this threshold, they would also see higher premiums if the credits are not extended, with premium increases projected to average around 75%. Rural areas could experience 90% increases in premiums, putting healthcare coverage out of reach for many individuals, especially in low-income and moderate-income communities.
Congressional Debate and Uncertainty
Currently, Republicans are pushing to pass a stop-gap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but Democrats have stated that they will not support any bill that does not extend these critical tax credits. This impasse leaves millions of Americans at risk of facing unaffordable health insurance premiums starting in 2026. If the credits are allowed to expire, an estimated 4 million more Americans could lose access to health coverage, further exacerbating the problem of the uninsured in the U.S.
A Larger Problem of Rising Premiums
The expiration of the tax credits is part of a larger trend in the health insurance market. According to a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis, if the credits are not extended, premiums for many Americans will rise by an average of 75% in 2026. This spike is expected to have a disproportionate impact on young, low-income, and urban enrollees, as well as those living in rural areas. These groups, already more vulnerable to health disparities, may struggle to afford insurance at such high rates.
Conclusion: The Need for Congressional Action
The expiration of the enhanced tax credits poses a significant challenge for the Affordable Care Act marketplace, leaving millions of Americans facing substantially higher premiums and fewer options for affordable healthcare. Without a congressional extension, many will be unable to afford coverage, leading to an increase in the uninsured rate. With Congress divided, it is crucial for lawmakers to act quickly to extend these credits and ensure that Americans can continue to access affordable health insurance.
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